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Why Black Magic will die, part 0
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    Disclaimer. I really like all BM cameras, so posts won't be about how you must buy something else or any such shit.
    It'll be just collection of my thoughts focused on economics, distribution, tech side and marketing.
    And, yes, title has some marketing purposes :-)

    image

    First part will focus on pure technical side of things. Difference to other cameras including hardware and software.

    Second part will focus on local BM issues. Like marketing and distribution.

    Third part will be about global marketing and economical analysis. Including few optimistic and pessimistic predictions.

    Each day I'll be publishing one part.

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  • 60 Replies sorted by
  • andyharrisandyharris

    @Vitaliy_Kiselev Have you got a BMCC ?

  • firstbasefirstbase

    Looking forward to your analysis, VK. I've always kind of thought BlackMagic cams were analogous to the Tucker automobile example. Innovative and better in many ways, but lacking critical mass to ensure longevity.

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    Long overdue first part must be available tomorrow.

    It had been very interesting to check various information and opinions while preparing them.

  • LongJohnSilverLongJohnSilver

    Ok, I thought I missed it :)

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    @LongJohnSilver

    Still writing it, sorry. Wanted to change direction and add more interesting stuff.

  • LongJohnSilverLongJohnSilver

    What happened to part 1?

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    Stratix® 10 FPGAs and SoCs offer breakthrough advantages in bandwidth and system integration, including the next-generation hard processor system (HPS), to deliver the industry’s highest performance and most power- efficient FPGAs and SoCs. Stratix 10 devices are manufactured on the revolutionary Intel 14 nm 3D Tri-Gate transistor technology, which delivers breakthrough levels of performance and power efficiencies that were previously unimaginable. When coupled with 64 bit quad-core ARM® CortexTM-A53 processors and advanced heterogeneous development and debug tools - See more at: http://www.altera.com/devices/fpga/stratix-fpgas/stratix10/stx10-index.jsp#sthash.3yMaHLM7.dpuf

    One of the news tightly related with upcoming Part 1. It must be noted that leading FPGA manufacturers are always first to use latest technologies, also having few ARM cores is pretty normal also.

  • RamboRambo

    Maybe the heading should read Why BM "must" die Part 0.

  • nomadnomad

    Doesn't the name give away their sugar daddy? Folks, we BM customers all sold our souls! ;-)

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    @vicharris

    It is not PR. I think it is interesting to look at economics, cameras market and semiconductor business. And show were the place of such company like BM is now.

  • vicharrisvicharris

    This might be the best PR stunt ever on here :)

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    I read many interesting references and materials on topic (in additional to data I knew). And want to change approach slightly as it seems like it'll be more fun.

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    Sorry for small delay, guys.

    Still working on part 1, must be ready soon.

  • jleojleo

    Found right next to the Microsoft Surface plot at Forest Lawn! Well, BM might still live to a hundred:)

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  • GravitateMediaGroupGravitateMediaGroup

    Yeah, if all this is "Grant's odd experiment" to see if he could turn BMD into a well recognized camera manufacture then more power to him and a pat on the back for what success has come from it. Out of every major complaint I see people having about any BMD camera, the cons still have yet to outweigh the pros.

  • kavadnikavadni

    It might be of interest, my investment/expenditure with BMD products over last two years:

    Cameras is $2300, the MFT Cinema Camera
    Others total $8800

    AUD

  • MimirsanMimirsan

    @BurnetRhodes Try not to take all this so seriously my man. Its a fun thread. Not a forcast.

  • bozfxbozfx

    I love what BM is doing by pushing the market forward with their high quality, low-cost camera solutions. However, it is extremely puzzling to me that they don't have the basics in their cameras (ability to delete clips, audio levels, etc.). If they are truly making "pro" cameras, they need to step up their game in that regard. In the end, it's great to have companies like Red and BM in the market to shake up the big boys. :)

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    No, I don't work there and am not interested in whether they have some sugar daddy somewhere. I only know the company going back way before any of this based on their NLE equipment in 2001 and broadcast equipment prior to that.

    In this case I suggest to spend some time on this research. BM history is full of surprises.

  • BurnetRhoadesBurnetRhoades

    Can you provide me sources of money this company ...

    No, I don't work there and am not interested in whether they have some sugar daddy somewhere. I only know the company going back way before any of this based on their NLE equipment in 2001 and broadcast equipment prior to that.

    Selling broadcast and production equipment is the most logical source of funds, given that's what they've been doing all along. The cameras don't affect that business.

    edit: acquiring specialized software companies doesn't have to involve a lot of money either. Pinnacle's whole model was based on this because software companies making specialized stuff are almost always on the ragged edge of disappearing. Pinnacle stretched itself too thin, doing nothing terribly well and allowing previously attractive solutions to languish and go un-supported until they were finally an easy target and have been passed around a couple times.

    They're (these software companies) a completely different world from the stupid billion dollar transactions that happen for blogs and sites of no value beyond their number of visitors. A lot of very cool software has just disappeared because they deal with a limited viable customer base and the ease of software piracy. You can't pirate a camera, or a switcher, or a NLE accelerator or other piece of gear.

  • NickBenNickBen

    Blackmagic Design Roadmap in the low end marketplace looks solid thru 2020 :

    at 2014 NAB BM announces Thunderbolt 2 and HDMI 2.0 based products and converters for 4K 60fp camcorders. These products work with Davinci Resolve for 4K live production on the cheap. Hardware HEVC products start being announced...

    2015 thru 2020... Rollout of 8K UHD broadcast at 120fps, and BM has production software, hardware, switchers and finally working cameras which facilitates this transition. SDOF loses appeal at 120fps (in all except film) as people desire Deep focus for hyper-real 8K for broadcast anyway...

    If BM loses some customers temporarily on flaky cameras or not for the next year or so, they appear better positioned than everyone to profit from the transition from the low end / midrange to the high end during this 8K UHD transition than everybody else in the marketplace I see so far.

    They'll get it right technically by then, just give them some time...

    Apple or Autodesk could acquire them with a rounding error of their available cash in the interim...Unless the accountants come calling before then, that is.

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    They were founded in 1984 and it's never been a part of their company culture or products.

    Can you provide me sources of money this company used for their purchases of other companies and stuff?

    Just with references, please :-) As it is super interesting question, in fact.

  • BurnetRhoadesBurnetRhoades

    BMD products is overkill for what is just family videos or a hobby that a huge percentage people buy cameras for.

    And those people have plenty of choice. They don't need BMD and BMD doesn't need them.

    You're artificially superimposing "big moneymaking business" as if that's what every business needs to be successful or even wants. They were founded in 1984 and it's never been a part of their company culture or products. Just like you don't need all that these cameras offer not all businesses need or want to be Sony. Sony has to do what Sony does in order to survive. Other businesses don't if they're not interested in being Sony.

    That's the mistake your whole theory is based on.

  • MimirsanMimirsan

    @BurnetRhodes

    In an ideal world. BMD cant ignore average joe in order to really compete with the bigger companies in the camera market. All it would take is one of them to make a camera delivering similar as a BMCC then its game over for BM. They probably wont ever do that though...no money to be made from the wider consumers. ;-)

    Also Not everybody cares about 4k or 4.2.2 or dynamic range or prores/raw

    I know I dont because im an average joe...when I buy a camera I want it to work out of the box and not be damanding me to work for it. Then theres storing big files to edit. BMD products is overkill for what is just family videos or a hobby that a huge percentage people buy cameras for. As average joe I will get one when the process is less painful. :-D

    For big moneymaking business its about the wider demographic...maybe they should make some pink models with mp4 codec that will directly upload edit itself and output on social network sites. ;-)

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    You've got it backwards. You're trying to concoct a self-fulfilling prophesy

    Do not worry, no prophecies. Just sharing few thoughts.

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