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Why Black Magic will die, part 0
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  • more than 700 reads and 25 replies only for that title. :)

    @Vitaliy_Kiselev You are a marketing Jedi!!!

  • to be COMPLETELY fair, this topic shouldn't compare BMD to any other camera manufacture, because BMD has 2 years under their belt making cameras, while the rest of them 20+ years? Not to mention BMD throws everything that people were wanting into an affordable camera and leave the rest up to you. They give us something better than 8bit, uncompressed, and a higher resolution than 1080 and people try to find things wrong with it? Sure there will be growing pains and bumps in the road with them, even Panasonic isn't on point when it comes to marketing and distribution (gh3).

    Some of their business decisions have been a little odd, but the people let them hear about it, and from what I can tell BMD listens to the customers, they just aren't 110% when it comes to being "a solid camera manufacture"

    I can honestly say the BMCC isn't for everyone, not even close. It's an affordable camera because of the other "hidden cost" SSDs, a computer able to handle RAW, storage, microphone, lens/speed booster option, rigs rigs and more rigs to pick from. In a way, BMD made a "camera"...."film/cinema camera" as they advertise it, in the same fashion of how traditional cameras that shot on film were. Mics were not built in, lights were used in "low light"(not depending on the camera being able to see in the dark), you can't delete film, and so on....

    The only thing I can see hurting BMD the most is the MagicLantern buzz and how it's an even more affordable way to shoot raw video. You can go to walmart and buy a camera that shoots raw video...see why it might be hard to compete with that? lol

    I think this topic should closed or be put on pause for 5 years, just to see what happens. Lets see if Canon eventually conforms to lower pricing...It's going to be hard for them to sell $30,000 cameras when ML is turning $3000 cameras into $50,000 cameras. Keep in mind BMD probably didn't realize their camera would boom like it did, especially with other "near future" affordable raw option on the horizon (bolex and so on)

    Time will tell everything, no need to try and analyze every situation. When you watch a movie, do you really want to know how it ends in the middle, or would you rather be completely blown away like "WHAT THE..." Before it's all said and done Apple may be king of video cameras, with the help of GoPro or whoever.

  • Which sub-$1000 Canon camera can shoot full 1080P raw? Used 50D and 7D don't (going by Andrew's recent comparison, the 7D doesn't have the oomph in its data rate).

    Also, to be completely fair, even if BMD weren't selling the cameras faster than it could make them, like they are, they're a company with decades of broadcast experience producing all sorts of other equipment, still, that's been successful enough to allow them this little experiment. If the cameras were a flop they could simply stop making them and move on, since they're currently only two of the products they make.

    Plus, they're selling like they are with very little traditional marketing. It's a grass roots phenomenon of VideoToaster proportions.

  • As a "non pro" and a hobbyist I personally think the BM line are niche products. For example the BMCC/BMPCC Great for enthusiasts who want to cock about with 2k/4k/raw. not so great for joe public. And joe public is where the moneys at. So maybe BM will need to make consumer based products. btw Reids opinion that the BMCC/BMPCC will kill the video modes that the other companies impliment (canon/sony/panasonic etc) is just his own.

  • I think that BM will and is having a big impact in the film, commercial and advertising video world. This in itself has been a niche compared to any consumer market and that is why all the big manufacturers have tried to keep price high. They know that it is a very small market and that you cannot think that it will expand that much.

    Somehow what is interesting with BM is that they look more like the dslr market in their approach. Give professional tool to mr Joe amateur. How many amateur have bought the nikon d800 for example. I am sure that their are much more amateur that have bought d800 than professional. Look at the amount of posters on site like Dpreview and most of them unable to take a good photos with D800 or 5d mark3.

    The Bm pocket camera is a good example. Even if it not mature enough now, in 2 to 3 years it could have a true m43 sensor with autofocus etc. so that it could have the whole line-up of M43 lens and be more appealing to the more passionate amateurs and for the price they are selling every pro will have one in his bag.

    Now will they have 2 to 3 years. If one of the big manufacturer, decides just to put some 10 bit high bitrate log codec or RAW in their DSLR. Most of them already have sensor tech that can match or beat BM. A 13.7 stop apsc Nikon D7200 with a 10 bit log or RAW would put a lot of pressure on the BM cameras. But this remain to be seen if it will happen before BM product really matures.

  • @BurnetRhoades

    50D does 1080P RAW in crop mode (which means 3x, similar to BMPCC). In crop mode there's almost no aliasing/moirè and it holds perfectly until you fill the card.

    Drawbacks are no audio and the enormous amount of storage we need.

  • @jazzroy Yeah, I disregard the crop modes entirely.

  • @Mimirsan "Joe Public" can eat AVCHD. He already has dozens of cameras to choose from. BMD should ignore this demographic entirely.

  • "Joe Public" can eat AVCHD. He already has dozens of cameras to choose from. BMD should ignore this demographic entirely.

    In few posts I'll show you with numbers why they can't ignore average Joe. Unfortunately.

  • That will be interesting, considering they can't fill demand for the cameras with almost no money spent on marketing. Chasing the average consumer is where they'll get into trouble. You've got it backwards.

    That's an over-saturated market dominated by manufacturers adept at creating dumbed down product and consumers that don't want to think about how they use the product. These cameras have proven too much for a lot of enthusiasts and prosumers. They're positioned where the big dogs have nothing and don't "get it".

    You've got it backwards. You're trying to concoct a self-fulfilling prophesy.

    If they're not taking a loss per unit, if they're selling as fast as they can be made then you don't have a chart or graph that would represent anything but making the mistake of being greedy, moving into a market they've never catered to before (they don't sell consumer anything).

    It's thinking like that that nearly sunk Apple in the '90s when Jobs made the mistake of hiring a soft drink executive to run the company, getting the boot. Sculley made the mistake of wanting to increase their market share and go after unsophisticated customers that had never been part of their demographic, fracturing their product line into meaningless, redundant, overlapping, bland models (see: consumer cameras), chasing more customers willing to spend less. That's just simple capitalist thinking without passion for what the company actually is and their core customers.

    Go on with your exercise though.

  • You've got it backwards. You're trying to concoct a self-fulfilling prophesy

    Do not worry, no prophecies. Just sharing few thoughts.

  • @BurnetRhodes

    In an ideal world. BMD cant ignore average joe in order to really compete with the bigger companies in the camera market. All it would take is one of them to make a camera delivering similar as a BMCC then its game over for BM. They probably wont ever do that though...no money to be made from the wider consumers. ;-)

    Also Not everybody cares about 4k or 4.2.2 or dynamic range or prores/raw

    I know I dont because im an average joe...when I buy a camera I want it to work out of the box and not be damanding me to work for it. Then theres storing big files to edit. BMD products is overkill for what is just family videos or a hobby that a huge percentage people buy cameras for. As average joe I will get one when the process is less painful. :-D

    For big moneymaking business its about the wider demographic...maybe they should make some pink models with mp4 codec that will directly upload edit itself and output on social network sites. ;-)

  • BMD products is overkill for what is just family videos or a hobby that a huge percentage people buy cameras for.

    And those people have plenty of choice. They don't need BMD and BMD doesn't need them.

    You're artificially superimposing "big moneymaking business" as if that's what every business needs to be successful or even wants. They were founded in 1984 and it's never been a part of their company culture or products. Just like you don't need all that these cameras offer not all businesses need or want to be Sony. Sony has to do what Sony does in order to survive. Other businesses don't if they're not interested in being Sony.

    That's the mistake your whole theory is based on.

  • They were founded in 1984 and it's never been a part of their company culture or products.

    Can you provide me sources of money this company used for their purchases of other companies and stuff?

    Just with references, please :-) As it is super interesting question, in fact.

  • Blackmagic Design Roadmap in the low end marketplace looks solid thru 2020 :

    at 2014 NAB BM announces Thunderbolt 2 and HDMI 2.0 based products and converters for 4K 60fp camcorders. These products work with Davinci Resolve for 4K live production on the cheap. Hardware HEVC products start being announced...

    2015 thru 2020... Rollout of 8K UHD broadcast at 120fps, and BM has production software, hardware, switchers and finally working cameras which facilitates this transition. SDOF loses appeal at 120fps (in all except film) as people desire Deep focus for hyper-real 8K for broadcast anyway...

    If BM loses some customers temporarily on flaky cameras or not for the next year or so, they appear better positioned than everyone to profit from the transition from the low end / midrange to the high end during this 8K UHD transition than everybody else in the marketplace I see so far.

    They'll get it right technically by then, just give them some time...

    Apple or Autodesk could acquire them with a rounding error of their available cash in the interim...Unless the accountants come calling before then, that is.

  • Can you provide me sources of money this company ...

    No, I don't work there and am not interested in whether they have some sugar daddy somewhere. I only know the company going back way before any of this based on their NLE equipment in 2001 and broadcast equipment prior to that.

    Selling broadcast and production equipment is the most logical source of funds, given that's what they've been doing all along. The cameras don't affect that business.

    edit: acquiring specialized software companies doesn't have to involve a lot of money either. Pinnacle's whole model was based on this because software companies making specialized stuff are almost always on the ragged edge of disappearing. Pinnacle stretched itself too thin, doing nothing terribly well and allowing previously attractive solutions to languish and go un-supported until they were finally an easy target and have been passed around a couple times.

    They're (these software companies) a completely different world from the stupid billion dollar transactions that happen for blogs and sites of no value beyond their number of visitors. A lot of very cool software has just disappeared because they deal with a limited viable customer base and the ease of software piracy. You can't pirate a camera, or a switcher, or a NLE accelerator or other piece of gear.

  • No, I don't work there and am not interested in whether they have some sugar daddy somewhere. I only know the company going back way before any of this based on their NLE equipment in 2001 and broadcast equipment prior to that.

    In this case I suggest to spend some time on this research. BM history is full of surprises.

  • I love what BM is doing by pushing the market forward with their high quality, low-cost camera solutions. However, it is extremely puzzling to me that they don't have the basics in their cameras (ability to delete clips, audio levels, etc.). If they are truly making "pro" cameras, they need to step up their game in that regard. In the end, it's great to have companies like Red and BM in the market to shake up the big boys. :)

  • @BurnetRhodes Try not to take all this so seriously my man. Its a fun thread. Not a forcast.

  • It might be of interest, my investment/expenditure with BMD products over last two years:

    Cameras is $2300, the MFT Cinema Camera
    Others total $8800

    AUD

  • Yeah, if all this is "Grant's odd experiment" to see if he could turn BMD into a well recognized camera manufacture then more power to him and a pat on the back for what success has come from it. Out of every major complaint I see people having about any BMD camera, the cons still have yet to outweigh the pros.

  • Found right next to the Microsoft Surface plot at Forest Lawn! Well, BM might still live to a hundred:)

    BMmy_tombstone2.jpg
    400 x 313 - 73K
  • Sorry for small delay, guys.

    Still working on part 1, must be ready soon.

  • I read many interesting references and materials on topic (in additional to data I knew). And want to change approach slightly as it seems like it'll be more fun.

  • This might be the best PR stunt ever on here :)