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Coronavirus: What happens with flu in 2020, 2021 and 2022?
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  • zcreamzcream

    What ? Distancing and masks work better for influenza. Thats common sense. Why would you see intense flu infections ? Everyone is sitting at home.

    Common cold has a lower r0 than covid to begin with. Its much easier to control influenza than covid.

    From here - https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-the-seasonal-flu-facts-and-figures/

    The flu has an R0 value of 1.3, which means each person with the flu transmits it to between one and two people. Researchers are still determining the R0 for COVID-19, but preliminary studies according to a JAMA article - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762510 say an infected person spreads the virus to an average two or three people, giving SARS-CoV-2 an R0 of 2 to 3. Some studies, however, estimate the R0 value to be closer to 6 - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM25287 — one infected person passes the virus on to six people, an infection rate much higher than that of the seasonal flu.

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    @zcream

    You want to offer extremely oversimplified method that don't explain stuff. Note how all models based on similar approach failed with COVID and it was best guys.

    Also all of official professionals who also operated same models told exactly opposite things from that we see (both in Summer and they still repeated it during September and October).

    Also that we see fully contradicts with official flu origins story, as at least we must see quite intense local flu infections.

  • zcreamzcream

    Due to mask usage, the r0 can reduce from 1.2 to 1.0

    The initial 100 are the super spreaders. Each one passes to 1.2 so the next generation is 100^1.2

    Each successive generation is an exponent of r0. So over 50 generations (here a generation is just a new group that comes in contact) the infected rate is 100^(50^1.2)

    General formula is :- p for initial population, r0 is rate of spread and g is generations. So total infected is p^(g^r0)

    Now a small reduction in r0 over say 100 generations can reduce the infected from millions to thousands.

    The reduction in flu numbers indicate that mask usage and social distancing is actually working.

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    @zcream

    Do you have words shortage? As your explanation have nothing to do with described flu situations.

  • zcreamzcream

    EDIT: read my next post as I have the exponent wrong.

    Bull. If r0 reduces from 1.2 to 1.1, over say 50 generations, the numbers reduce. So earlier flu was 100^(50^1.2) and now it's 100^(50^1.1)

    Methods used to reduce covid also reduce flu. By reducing r0 you reduce the numbers substantially as numbers of infected are the exponent of exponent.

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    The infection is reported to have dropped to its lowest level in over 100 years. Experts attribute this to measures to combat coronavirus, such as social distancing and boosting immunity.

    The number of people reporting flu or flu-like symptoms to their therapists in the second week of January 2021 was 0.001 percent, or 1.1 per 100,000, compared with a five-year average of 0.027, or 27 per 100,000.

    During this time of year, there are usually thousands of people who get the flu, and many end up in hospitals. However, the number of hospitalizations for influenza in England in the second week of January was zero.

    This trend is mirrored around the world, with recent data showing that of the average billion people who get the flu every year, less than one in ten falls ill.

    While the incidence of influenza has dropped by more than 95%, only three percent of Britons over 65 have taken the free flu vaccine.

    Another reason can be that all systems used to distribute flu previously are now 100% used for COVID distribution in dense populated areas. And without them virus can't get another traction and vanishes.

  • Nino_IlacquaNino_Ilacqua

    I understand... interesting.

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    @Nino_Ilacqua

    Actually it fails to diminish corona.

    Also it should not be so dramatic for flu (otherwise we won't have any coronavirus).

    Also note that for some Asian countries masks are pretty normal and they still had flu season (that is absent this year).

  • Nino_IlacquaNino_Ilacqua

    A simpler explanation: lock downs and large use of masks diminished spreading of Corona as well as seasonal flu viruses.

  • garroulusgarroulus

    @Vitaliy_Kiselev Your explanation about tem.

  • endotoxicendotoxic

    So maybe this “epidemic” was controlled before officially known. This may suggest it.

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    @garroulus

    What fits reality?

  • garroulusgarroulus

    @Vitaliy_Kiselev this one and the one with big bang theory being made to fit the hot spot are very intriguing. Unfortunately they fit reality.

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