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Coronavirus: What happens with flu in 2020?
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    Overall worldwide, seasonal influenza is around 98% lower this year than in earlier flu seasons.

    WHO spokesperson Dr. Sylvie Briand recently claimed that “literally there was nearly no flu in the Southern Hemisphere” in 2020, adding:

    “We hope that the situation will be the same in the Northern Hemisphere at end of this flu season".

    Right wing sites try to explain it that all flu is being counted as COVID, that makes very little sense.

    In reality we have much better explanation - all recent previous flu seasons also had artificial origin (instead of bird origin promoted by official science) and without artificial virus injection in large cities agglomerations we don't see any flu. At least it can simple explain what exactly 24/7 had been produced on bio weapons labs and factories that each developer nation has.

    How important are flu like viruses? Very important - as they themselves and complications from them are cause of death for 80% of people above 70 years. Some science modelling showed that full elimination of such viruses will add 5-7 years of additional life for 75+ people.

  • 24 Replies sorted by
  • @Vitaliy_Kiselev this one and the one with big bang theory being made to fit the hot spot are very intriguing. Unfortunately they fit reality.

  • So maybe this “epidemic” was controlled before officially known. This may suggest it.

  • @Vitaliy_Kiselev Your explanation about tem.

  • A simpler explanation: lock downs and large use of masks diminished spreading of Corona as well as seasonal flu viruses.

  • @Nino_Ilacqua

    Actually it fails to diminish corona.

    Also it should not be so dramatic for flu (otherwise we won't have any coronavirus).

    Also note that for some Asian countries masks are pretty normal and they still had flu season (that is absent this year).

  • I understand... interesting.

  • The infection is reported to have dropped to its lowest level in over 100 years. Experts attribute this to measures to combat coronavirus, such as social distancing and boosting immunity.

    The number of people reporting flu or flu-like symptoms to their therapists in the second week of January 2021 was 0.001 percent, or 1.1 per 100,000, compared with a five-year average of 0.027, or 27 per 100,000.

    During this time of year, there are usually thousands of people who get the flu, and many end up in hospitals. However, the number of hospitalizations for influenza in England in the second week of January was zero.

    This trend is mirrored around the world, with recent data showing that of the average billion people who get the flu every year, less than one in ten falls ill.

    While the incidence of influenza has dropped by more than 95%, only three percent of Britons over 65 have taken the free flu vaccine.

    Another reason can be that all systems used to distribute flu previously are now 100% used for COVID distribution in dense populated areas. And without them virus can't get another traction and vanishes.

  • EDIT: read my next post as I have the exponent wrong.

    Bull. If r0 reduces from 1.2 to 1.1, over say 50 generations, the numbers reduce. So earlier flu was 100^(50^1.2) and now it's 100^(50^1.1)

    Methods used to reduce covid also reduce flu. By reducing r0 you reduce the numbers substantially as numbers of infected are the exponent of exponent.

  • @zcream

    Do you have words shortage? As your explanation have nothing to do with described flu situations.

  • Due to mask usage, the r0 can reduce from 1.2 to 1.0

    The initial 100 are the super spreaders. Each one passes to 1.2 so the next generation is 100^1.2

    Each successive generation is an exponent of r0. So over 50 generations (here a generation is just a new group that comes in contact) the infected rate is 100^(50^1.2)

    General formula is :- p for initial population, r0 is rate of spread and g is generations. So total infected is p^(g^r0)

    Now a small reduction in r0 over say 100 generations can reduce the infected from millions to thousands.

    The reduction in flu numbers indicate that mask usage and social distancing is actually working.

  • @zcream

    You want to offer extremely oversimplified method that don't explain stuff. Note how all models based on similar approach failed with COVID and it was best guys.

    Also all of official professionals who also operated same models told exactly opposite things from that we see (both in Summer and they still repeated it during September and October).

    Also that we see fully contradicts with official flu origins story, as at least we must see quite intense local flu infections.

  • What ? Distancing and masks work better for influenza. Thats common sense. Why would you see intense flu infections ? Everyone is sitting at home.

    Common cold has a lower r0 than covid to begin with. Its much easier to control influenza than covid.

    From here - https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-the-seasonal-flu-facts-and-figures/

    The flu has an R0 value of 1.3, which means each person with the flu transmits it to between one and two people. Researchers are still determining the R0 for COVID-19, but preliminary studies according to a JAMA article - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762510 say an infected person spreads the virus to an average two or three people, giving SARS-CoV-2 an R0 of 2 to 3. Some studies, however, estimate the R0 value to be closer to 6 - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM25287 — one infected person passes the virus on to six people, an infection rate much higher than that of the seasonal flu.

  • What ? Distancing and masks work better for influenza. Thats common sense.

    Asian countries had almost same mask usage in transport and mass places and yet results are not same as this year.

    Everyone is sitting at home.

    No, I showed charts of how activity mostly restored (Goolge collect this using smartphones). In some cities public transport have issues still, but also recovering, in many others it recovered to 90-98%.

    The flu has an R0 value of 1.3, which means each person with the flu transmits it to between one and two people. Researchers are still determining the R0 for COVID-19

    I just told you that your model does not work, it never worked with flu and never worked with COVID.

    Model where this R0 is used is lazy and mostly useless outside very uniform controlled groups.

    If someone after one year discusses with all seriousness that R0 can be 2 or 3 or 6 - it is useless shit you must forget.

  • Are you saying strict lockdowns don't work to control COVID? Not even a little bit? Sorry but that is nonsense.

    Look at the actual data, and correlation with lockdown measures. Available for all countries here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc

    Lockdown measures such as the closure of borders on an island such as Taiwan or New Zealand along with quarantine hotels have helped to almost eradicate COVID from such countries. Look at the death stats.

    The fall and rise of COVID cases can be seen directly falling as a result of a lockdown in countries like the UK and directly raising again afterwards when one is lifted, again in the UK due to government incompetence starting December 2nd 2020 in London. The first of the second-wave lockdowns in November temporarily prevented the out of control situation we got later, and should have been continued. These are absolutely necessary and scientifically justified to prevent hospital ICU wards going into complete meltdown.

    Of course normal flu and influenza is being pushed down at a greater rate than COVID by the lockdowns. Nowhere near as contagious. Potentially also, COVID has become the dominant strain vs normal flu this season, and in those unlucky enough to get both flu and COVID, the hospitals are not going to record the normal flu - only COVID.

    Masks in Asian countries are not used by 100% of the public during normal times or even 80%. It is common to see only those currently with a cold or flu using a mask in public. Maybe 5-10% of people in a crowded train.

  • @AndrewReid_EOSHD

    Are you saying strict lockdowns don't work to control COVID? Not even a little bit? Sorry but that is nonsense.

    Are you talking with yourself, as you invented that no one said and debunked your own saying.

    Lockdown measures such as the closure of borders on an island such as Taiwan or New Zealand along with quarantine hotels have helped to almost eradicate COVID from such countries. Look at the death stats.

    Yet lockdowns failed to do that they initially promised with almost every big country.

    Of course normal flu and influenza is being pushed down at a greater rate than COVID by the lockdowns. Nowhere near as contagious. Potentially also, COVID has become the dominant strain vs normal flu this season, and in those unlucky enough to get both flu and COVID, the hospitals are not going to record the normal flu - only COVID.

    This is "common logic" talk, as if we go back, we see lot of infectionists and specialist talking opposite - that flu distribution will be even higher than usual due to weak immune system and the to simple fact that hospitals and any doctor visit places are now full with people with lungs issues.

    Masks in Asian countries are not used by 100% of the public during normal times or even 80%. It is common to see only those currently with a cold or flu using a mask in public. Maybe 5-10% of people in a crowded train.

    In Japan and China in dig density cities it had been much more than even 30% during flu seasons (in transport, in some workplaces and few similar places).

  • The lockdowns did do what they promised initially.

    See the highest coronavirus death rates in countries which had the most relaxed rules. USA, Brazil.

    Even Sweden.

    The death rates and case numbers in Sweden are in excess of their neighbouring nordic countries with their strict lockdowns aren't they? In China the original lockdowns were very strictly enforced. Was coronavirus a problem there afterwards? Doesn't seem like it. No more emergency hospital construction.

    The flu cases may not even be recorded. Doesn't mean to say they're not there. If you have a runny nose and flu, you're not going to be running down to the doctor at a time like this. Only shortness of breath and covid symptoms will you be going anywhere near a hospital and only then does the stat tick up for flu or covid.

    If Taiwan hadn't reacted in January 2020 very early with strict quarantine at the border and most advanced track & trace system in the world then they'd have needed a lockdown like anywhere else. I only wish now that the British government would have been that effective and clued-up so early on. Ours was a shambles... And neither quarantine or track & trace currently functions 1 year later.

    In New Zealand and South Korea, more successful examples of countries where coronavirus has been brought to heel by strict controls and government policies.

    In many countries it has been a lockdown-lite, or stupid policies, like in Germany from June-November. This is why the full lockdown is once again needed now, but judging from the traffic on the road and people on the street nobody gives a shit anymore about rules. They have lost faith in the government.

  • @AndrewReid_EOSHD

    Andrew, it is like I am talking with live version of CNN or NYT :-)

    You literally reply me with mass media headlines, just collected over some timeframe.

  • Oh mighty scholar.

    I don't watch CNN and don't read the NYT. The coronavirus stats are independent from all media sources. You can easily compare the dates of lockdowns and compare lockdown rule severity and see the correlation with coronavirus statistics. If you are on lockdown with flu symptoms, you do not even ring a doctor unless you have serious trouble with breathing. Then, it's most likely to be coronavirus and off you go to the hospital. How are they supposed to record accurate flu statistics under such circumstances?

  • @AndrewReid_EOSHD

    If you are on lockdown with flu symptoms, you do not even ring a doctor unless you have serious trouble with breathing. Then, it's most likely to be coronavirus and off you go to the hospital. How are they supposed to record accurate flu statistics under such circumstances?

    It is also common mass media version. But it does not stand any real check.

    Here it is no problem to call for doctor to visit you at home, you'll get visit within hours (system actually became much better during late 2020 after facing huge coronavirus hit with record calls). And people do not wait for something bad to happen as they need papers for their workplace anyway. Yes, and it is no flu this year, I talked to 3 doctors working on quite large area here.

    The coronavirus stats are independent from all media sources. You can easily compare the dates of lockdowns and compare lockdown rule severity and see the correlation with coronavirus statistics.

    You came with such stupid proclamations and not knowing that PV has posts and publications since January 2020 about coronavirus with all stats in detail.

  • If we analyze the situation that is happening now, not only in dark snowy Mordor, but also in bright green European countries and on a global scale, then we can safely say that this has not happened in the entire history of influenza surveillance, that is, since the 40s of the last century. ...

    If by April there is no surge in the incidence of influenza, then we can talk about the first epidemiological season in the history of observations, somewhere since the 40s of the twentieth century, which passed without this disease, noted the deputy director for scientific work, head of the department of etiology and epidemiology of the Research Institute of Influenza Smorodintseva Daria Danilenko. She said that the almost complete absence of the influenza virus this season is a unique phenomenon. “If we analyze the situation that is happening now, not only in Russia, but also in European countries, and on a global scale, we can safely say that this was not the case. in the entire history of influenza surveillance, that is, since the 40s of the last century. "

    She is confident that the situation is related to the spread of coronavirus, however, the full range of reasons has yet to be clarified. The doctor noted that the incidence of influenza begins to rise in the period from the end of December, and the epidemic season ends around the end of March or early April.

    There are two weeks left until the beginning of April, and if nothing changes, then we can summarize that in this epidemic season, we will not see the circulation of the virus.

  • Another new theory I heard considering flu in 2020/2021.

    Today COVID vaccines are more profitable and market position is much more important, but companies use lot of equipment that they used for flu vaccines (including cold storage), only in few stages, but it is enough to be unable to make flu vaccines.

    This is why large pharma and government ordered total stop on flu spreading (in addition to few other reasons making it much harder).

  • Report from Netherlands

    The flu in the winter of 2020-2021 evaporated: it was not found in any sample of tests taken for research on covid.

  • If remember right 2019 they introduced Cov2 as a LESS infectious but more dangerous than influenza. Direct comparison should then not explain why influenza is disappearing.