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Japan: Big rock island ahead
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    Looking at the charts, you start to think that big major war with China can be quite good option, at least not the worst one.

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  • -1. I hate wars.

  • I hate wars.

    Perfect. Issue here is that for Japan it can be best option :-)

  • Before US bond market crash, Japan bond market crash. But I think we are not there yet. 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? Nobody knows. I'm expecting a major war in the midst of severe deflation era.

  • Japan has a huge pending crisis, caused largely by demographics: they have one of, if not the, oldest populations in the world.

    But people have lost fortunes making bets on Japan's obvious fiscal cliff for well over a decade. And so far, Japan has been incredibly resistant. The question isn't if, it's when, and how bad.

    China may very well be in the same situation in a few decades. The challenge for China is to get rich before they get old, and the recent economic slowdown shows that it may in fact be too late for china to reach the levels Japan and South Korea did.

    But a war, with China? Given Japan's demographics, who would serve as their army (which Japan has been banned from having since 1945, by the way)? I think the obvious answer is that a Sino-Japanese war may very well be manpower vs robots.

  • If war is to come, it will likely be at sea involving mainly naval and air powers where bodies do not carry much weight. Regardless of the economic issues, I believe in the long run war is probably inevitable. On issues of sovereignty, it is going to be next to impossible to negotiate. Besides, a Chinese lieutenant general recently stated that the real objectives are not just Senkaku but Okinawa as well. Outside of rocks, fishes are becoming rare in the East China and South China seas due to overfishing, so you now have Chinese fishing vessels venturing out to Vladivostok as well as Honolulu. The USCG recently arrested one in Hawai and the Russian navy fired upon one a few weeks ago.

  • Steady improvements continue.

    Seasonally adjusted industrial production in Japan fell 4.1% in September, compared to August's fall of 1.6%, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) in Tokyo said on Tuesday. Compared to a year ago industrial production in September fell 8.1% in Japan.