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Energy: Oil Discoveries at 70-Year Low
  • Explorers in 2015 discovered only about a tenth as much oil as they have annually on average since 1960. Just 2.7 billion barrels of new supply was discovered in 2015, the smallest amount since 1947.

    In 2016 decrease continues, with half year discoveries equal to 736 million barrels.

    For perspective - we consume around 95 millions barrels per day.

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  • New records

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    The industry is set to discover 4.7 billion barrels of oil this year, marking the worst performance in 75 years. The ratio of "proven reserves to production" is now at its lowest level since 2011, according to data from research firm Rystad Energy.

    “The industry was in a survival mode throughout 2020, reducing its capital expenditures to match with low cash flows through the 2020 covid-19 recession.”

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  • @4CardMan

    Building empires is not imperialism. As we talk about economics here word has definitive meaning.

    1. The concentration of production and capital has developed to such a high stage that it has created monopolies which play a decisive role in economic life;
    2. The merging of bank capital with industrial capital, and the creation, on the basis of this "finance capital", of a financial oligarchy;
    3. The export of capital as distinguished from the export of commodities acquires exceptional importance;
    4. The formation of international monopolist capitalist associations which share the world among themselves, and 5. The territorial division of the whole world among the biggest capitalist powers is completed.

    Imperialism is capitalism at that stage of development at which the dominance of monopolies and finance capital is established; in which the export of capital has acquired pronounced importance; in which the division of the world among the international trusts has begun, in which the division of all territories of the globe among the biggest capitalist powers has been completed.

    https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1916/imp-hsc/

  • Dumb me, I always thought that imperialism referred to its root word, empire, so that imperialism is empire-building. From that definition, the British practiced both economic and military imperialism. The Romans, just military.

    I always thought that capitalism is the appropriation of the means of production away from individuals and to a company. The standard of value becomes time spent on production, rather than labor expressed as actual items produced. The individual's work becomes a part of an economic machine. In the Marxist analysis, which I subscribe to, capitalism fails as it runs out of new markets and eliminates redundant functions.

    @VK - perhaps you could correct my faulty notions.

  • My goal in economics blog posts is not educate you, my goal is to show interesting data, show you how limited your knowledge is, make you go and read, return, understand how limited you still is, read again, and so on. I am not here to respect your opinion, I am here to rise your opinion to knowledge.

    What a linguist, I like this. :)

  • I'm not doing either.

    Well. You understand that words sometimes lie :-)

    My goal in economics blog posts is not educate you, my goal is to show interesting data, show you how limited your knowledge is, make you go and read, return, understand how limited you still is, read again, and so on.

    I am not here to respect your opinion, I am here to rise your opinion to knowledge.

    Most of your comments consist of non-sequiturs, logical fallacies, and insults.

    Most of my comments are attempts to explain you in quite soft way that you do not understand terms and some words that you are writing.

    I asked sincerely to better understand your point of view on the matter and hopefully learn something new, but I don't see anything I couldn't have read in Capital. I guess I'll stick to the camera posts.

    LOL. I imagine you are telling this to Marx, just citing works of Ricardo, Pierre Guillaume Guizot and so on and so on.

    What else you read among basic communist works?

  • @Vitaliy_Kiselev - I'm not doing either. I've raised cogent counterarguments which you disregard entirely. Most of your comments consist of non-sequiturs, logical fallacies, and insults. I asked sincerely to better understand your point of view on the matter and hopefully learn something new, but I don't see anything I couldn't have read in Capital. I guess I'll stick to the camera posts.

  • Economic imperialism has been a feature of capitalism for hundreds of years. Real imperialism, the military kind, has been around for thousands.

    You try to use words without knowing definitions.

    The only real alternative to capitalism failed, because its theory, dialectical materialism, ignored several fundamental human needs.

    I am glad that you did so big discovery :-) At least now we know that idealism being foundation of capitalism is the right thing :-)

    As your comments make clear, no one has any idea what will follow it.

    LOL

  • Economic imperialism has been a feature of capitalism for hundreds of years. Real imperialism, the military kind, has been around for thousands.

    The only real alternative to capitalism failed, because its theory, dialectical materialism, ignored several fundamental human needs. You are correct that capitalism is in its end game. Its fate is already determined, because of its inherent concentration of power in a decreasing number of players. This makes perfect economic sense - it is obviously more efficient to have only one administrative unit for many companies, for example, than for each company to have its own. As your comments make clear, no one has any idea what will follow it.

  • Like any system, capitalism has some problems and corporatism has more.

    Such thing as "corporatism" does not exist. Stage of capitalism where corporations merge with finances and ruling power and where all the world is divided among them is called imperialism.

    I'll ignore another marketing part of capitalism, as it is nothing new, actually all the same words had been found and used in 19th century.

    And if we as a species ultimately achieve the ability to create the energy we crave in a way that does not pollute or deplete resources, it will probably be some form of capitalism that gets us there.

    You mean perpetum mobile? :-)

    It's your site, so I'm happy to drop the discussion if you don't want to come out and say what you're proposing, but I really don't understand the coy act. Either you think there's something better (or inevitable) or you don't. Why not just come out and say it?

    Few things that I do not like - trolling and acting as idiot.

  • @Vitaliy_Kiselev - Apparently, I'm fairly thick because I honestly have no idea what you are proposing except pure collapse and the fantasy of something better rising from the ashes--which history does not support. If there is some better system than capitalism out there, by all means, please tell us about it!

    Like any system, capitalism has some problems and corporatism has more. Yes there is waste and I am a believer in regulation to balance this. I personally believe in certain socialist structures such as education, infrastructure building, basic scientific research, and some health care, etc, within a capitalist framework. The system of capitalism has lifted more of the world out of abject poverty than any other system. People today at many social strata have access to luxuries beyond what kings would imagine a century ago.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/upshot/the-formula-for-a-richer-world-equality-liberty-justice.html?_r=0

    Most of what we call poverty today seems far better than the routine poverty, famine, disease, and subjugation of 200 years ago. This system has also produced all of the new inventions that we discuss on this site as well as the very ability for people from across the globe to have these conversations at all. And if we as a species ultimately achieve the ability to create the energy we crave in a way that does not pollute or deplete resources, it will probably be some form of capitalism that gets us there.

    It's your site, so I'm happy to drop the discussion if you don't want to come out and say what you're proposing, but I really don't understand the coy act. Either you think there's something better (or inevitable) or you don't. Why not just come out and say it? It's clear that you are an intelligent and well read person, and I am interested in your point of view. Frankly, the references you've cited have been interesting to me, and I thought you had something larger to say, but it seems like that isn't the case.

  • There's only two other alternatives and that is socialism or collapse-ism. I'm pretty much a doomer so I go with collapse, although I hope for the best.

    I am much more optimistic lately.

    Looking at capitalist actions it is easy to see that they are very afraid of that's coming. And capitalists are afraid only about one thing :-)

  • Capitalism has eaten up environment and precious resources, converting them into industrial waste. Something like 99% of consumed resources end up as waste !!

    A replacement for capitalism? There's only two other alternatives and that is socialism or collapse-ism. I'm pretty much a doomer so I go with collapse, although I hope for the best

  • I've haven't heard you suggest something to take its place--whatever you may call it. Human beings will always use some form of ownership and economic interaction.

    Well, I see no point to use self invented terms, this is that I mean. But you like this approach.

    You're so strong in your beliefs that capitalism is cancerous that I had hoped you could propose something that would do better.

    I really hope you are joking here :-) As you do not need to be genius to understand that I propose :-)

  • I've haven't heard you suggest something to take its place--whatever you may call it. Human beings will always use some form of ownership and economic interaction. Even a system where everyone agrees that no one owns anything and they freely give and take as they desire is a system of ownership and economic interaction. But there will naturally be some form used by people. So if not capitalism, then what do you propose?

    Just saying that capitalism is doomed isn't worth much. It's not actionable. If it simply fails, then what is left? anarchy, barbarism, and warlords? That's what emerges in most failed and failing states today. You're so strong in your beliefs that capitalism is cancerous that I had hoped you could propose something that would do better.

  • Perhaps you're right. Churchill called democracy, "the worst form of government, except for all the other forms of government," and I sometimes feel the same about capitalism as a form of economics.

    Well, you are not alone, ruling class try to constantly recall same poor quote and same argument for long time.

    At the very large scale, I see more problems with what I'd call corporatism where corporations become too large to be bound by the rules that apply to individuals, and yet they are essentially viewed as individuals in terms of their privileges, but not in their responsibilities and where they grow so large that they can take on outsized quasi-governmental roles.

    it is artificial problems translated to you by various media. As they replace capitalism research by bunch of hoopla colorful things.

    VK, I am curious what form of economics you think would be better than capitalism?

    I have no idea what is "form of economics" here.

    Capitalism is a stage of society development. Now this stage is in cancer state.

  • Wow.

    One way to look at current economic figures, failure of stimulus to produce inflation goals, and oil glut is as a result of a long period of de facto negative inflation and very low growth that had been masked by central bank monetary policies (QE, etc) and mis-reporting (e.g. years of growth over-estimation in China due to low transparency; US redefining key economic metrics) which is now failing to work to pump up the perceived economy--while the actual economy continues to flounder further in a way that gets harder to hide.

    You make thing so complex and literally drawn in this complexity.

    Let's become clear again. We have imperialism - last stage of capitalism. It is similar to cancer as it requires exponential growth due to construction issues like debt based financial institutions.

    The core cause of current crisis is nature limits on multiple energy sources and intolerable debt issues. Both are not some "errors" made, both are expected result. Solutions used to fix debt level did not work (and they will never will).

    I understand huge intention to somehow put natural limits under the bed, together with capitalism nature, and with its inevitable collapse. Do not worry, thorium reactors, solar panels and wind won't help.

    Question is how soon society will stop trying to fix thing that is broken beyond repair. Will it be too late and it will collapse on them?

  • @Vitaliy_Kiselev - Perhaps you're right. Churchill called democracy, "the worst form of government, except for all the other forms of government," and I sometimes feel the same about capitalism as a form of economics. For all its problems, I don't know what functional system could replace it in a world of billions of humans. I think capitalism is certainly successful in the small to medium scale. I see a lot of businesses that people I know have started that do a lot of good for them, their workers, and others. So I can't ignore those positives of capitalism.

    At the very large scale, I see more problems with what I'd call corporatism where corporations become too large to be bound by the rules that apply to individuals, and yet they are essentially viewed as individuals in terms of their privileges, but not in their responsibilities and where they grow so large that they can take on outsized quasi-governmental roles.

    VK, I am curious what form of economics you think would be better than capitalism?

  • @donniewagner - Some believe that the current production glut is a product of low (and underreported) actual demand due to low global growth. One way to look at current economic figures, failure of stimulus to produce inflation goals, and oil glut is as a result of a long period of de facto negative inflation and very low growth that had been masked by central bank monetary policies (QE, etc) and mis-reporting (e.g. years of growth over-estimation in China due to low transparency; US redefining key economic metrics) which is now failing to work to pump up the perceived economy--while the actual economy continues to flounder further in a way that gets harder to hide. Consumers spend less into this economic climate as do businesses which creates a cycle limiting growth (very much like the Japanese post-bubble economy, but now on a global scale). Therefore, the demand for energy resources (mostly oil) falls taking prices with it. A better functioning global economy would slash production to keep prices at reasonable levels and balance the system, however, several key oil producers are unable to agree on slashing prices due to mistrust and the fact that their economies rely primarily on this source of income. Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are unable to trust one another due to mutual animosity and past broken deals and have failed to reach a meaningful agreement to cut production in two major rounds of talks. The US fracking industry--whose existence, some say, was the original target of Saudi oversupply efforts around the time of their new monarch took power--perseveres (though their output is reduced), while other producers like Venezuela have few other viable resources to support their floundering economies. As a result many of these oil producers, for various reasons, pump out all the oil they possibly can to keep their economies afloat, but the oversupply breaks the normal balances of supply and demand and prices continue to fall--particularly because there are finite amounts of storage for the oversupply that has been accumulating and this too is now approaching its limits. Anyway, that's one theory about why we have cheap oil right now and it completely takes the issue of long term oil supplies out of the question. Hard to say it's entirely correct, but it makes some strong arguments and if it is true, it probably spells an unpleasant global economic future for some time to come. (Again, look at Japan's languishing post-bubble economy.)

  • Personally, I think there can be no better investment, but the opportunity has to be solid.

    Personally, I think that capitalism will never make any real progress in energy field and will collapse. Exactly because it "can be no better investment". As it will fall due to unsolvable to capitalism conflict between common good, interests of society and greed of investors seeking profits only.

  • @4CardsMan - Thanks for sharing this. I try to follow developments in fusion closely as I believe that the most important race in the history of modern man is the one to try to develop productive fusion before we run out of fossil fuels. It seems to be a major inflection point in human history and the diverging paths between success and failure will be remarkable and may determine human history for the rest of time. (Since there will be no second chance if we fail.) Success would have an enormous impact on global warming, poverty, and other problems--probably more than any other single development. This is probably the last great bottleneck in the development of intelligent species. I'm fortunate to have retired nuclear scientists and engineers in my family and they help me (try to) understand these things.

    I haven't watched your entire video, but I look forward to doing so. I am both circumspect about a major breakthrough and hopeful. They say that a major breakthrough in fusion has been just 10 years away for the past 50 years. I think there are reasons for that. But yes, material science and computing power are probably two big pieces of the equation.

    Several world governments are working on some fusion moonshot projects. Personally, I think there can be no better investment, but the opportunity has to be solid. I think popular support is low because most people have lost their belief in this as something we can achieve and they don't see the dire need.

  • @Vitaliy_Kiselev - +1 on not always believing in progress. For example, you are quite correct that Moore's law is now deprecated for silicon devices, and any replacement is in the distant future. But the underlying physics for both fusion and thorium reactors is sound, and the promise of a firm solution to global warming beckons. These technologies won't solve everything. We will still need fossil fuels for air travel and for long trips by automobile. There are a half-dozen nations that have the capability to do both. One of them will do it.

  • @4CardsMan

    It like religion of science, always believing in progress. I prefer to be in reality and check real things. I am sure we will see some research facilities, but in 10 years as we will have major energy issues none of this will be available as any serious solution.

  • @ DouglasHorn -

    The short version is that until recently, output of fusion reactiors followed a curve steeper than Moore's law, then flatlined because of the limitations of early superconductors, source of the magnetic containment coils. A new generation of superconductors has enabled new designs, one of which the speaker presents. This is not some guy in a garage.

    @ Vitaliy_Kiselev - thorium reactors could be on line in ten years if a major government got on a stick. And thorium reactors could be made small enough to fit on an 18-wheeler with the designs in progress now. After several generations of development, this technology could conceivable sit in your garage or back yard.

  • when you say crisis of demand that exceed crisis of production, simplified, is demand is exceeding production correct?

    You got things reverse. Crisis of demand means falling or stalling demand, same for production. Demand crisis, as I said, exceed production crisis, hence low prices.

  • when you say crisis of demand that exceed crisis of production, simplified, is demand is exceeding production correct?