Situation is bad
Reality is much more bleak than chart as up to 60% of all cameras shipped are put into storage with hopes to sell with deep discount during 2021.
Small rumors from Japan
Panasonic and Nikon will change the way their FF bodies and expensive lenses are assembled.
Due to very low amount of FF bodies sold both companies will be used less specialized personnel where each is performing much more operations.
Space used on factories for both companies is expected to fall as much as 3-4 times towards February 2021.
Future of photos cameras press:
Japan’s Shinzo Abe said he was resigning the post of prime minister and head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party
It can have dramatic consequences for camera companies who literally sucked government tit for years.
Rumors are that new prime minister will side with opinion that big round of bankruptcies and cleansing is required.
One thing he does not tell much is state of his NY business (as photo businesses jobs in NY now almost do not exist), as it can be sole reason of sales and absolutely not mirrorless related at all.
With the market shrinking at such speed, companies are at great risk of falling into a fixed-costs crisis. Some analysts believe the entire industry will collapse unless companies undertake major reforms, like splitting design and development from manufacturing, and consolidating production.
The impact of Olympus’ decision to quit the camera business and discard 84 years’ worth of experience, may spread.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Electronics/Olympus-exit-foreshadows-a-Japan-camera-sector-shake-up
2021 industry prediction
Made after few talks.
Sony, Canon and Nikon
Pentax
Olympus
Panasonic
The Best Thing for the Camera Industry Is for Nikon to Exit
https://fstoppers.com/business/best-thing-camera-industry-nikon-exit-501725
Big online US retailer estimation for cameras and acessories sales during Augist-October period
Positive scenery (payments to individuals stay on current levels, evictions not enforced, medium covid cases)
Realistic scenery (payments to individuals reduced by around half, some evictions allowed, more covid cases)
Bad scenery (payments to individuals slmost stopped, massive evictions, big number of covid cases)
Britain has announced a £500m ($647m) fund to help television and film companies restart productions, after companies complained they were unable to get insurance because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Shoots shut down abruptly in March as Covid-19 spread and the government imposed a lockdown. As filmmakers try to get back to work, they are finding some insurers have stopped providing the Covid-19 coverage they need to secure financing.
The government said the insurance fund will be available to all productions made by companies where at least half the production budget is spent in the UK, and is estimated to cover more than 70% of the film and TV production market.
Printing money is easy, it is hard to live with condequences.
With the market shrinking at such speed, companies are at great risk of falling into a fixed-costs crisis.
Some analysts believe the entire industry will collapse unless companies undertake major reforms, like splitting design and development from manufacturing, and consolidating production.
The impact of Olympus’ decision to quit the camera business and discard 84 years’ worth of experience, may spread.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Electronics/Olympus-exit-foreshadows-a-Japan-camera-sector-shake-up
New round of private talks and rumors from big resellers
Present plans is that since September cameras sales are expected to drop 95% YoY in EU, 90% YoY in US, and sales in Asia will worsten significantly up to 85% YoY drop.
Resellers think that R5 from Canon will be extreme failure after initial surge of sales (at list till 2020 end). As major target base of video shooters is barely alive themselfs.
In case of strong second wave from 2 up to 4 major brands will restructure their business not waiting for 2020 end. In case it will be some big solution found we can see destruiction of only 2 of remaining brands (more correct to day - camera departments) and it will happen in 2021.
As Olympus is finally down, two more brands are preparing to bite the dust.
It is interesting that very careful approach to economy shoudown and small number of cases in Japan actually saved most manufacturers.
I expect that companies will begin falling during big second wave in Japan as camera sales will drop around 98-99% compared to year before in October and November.
Year to Date Sales compared to Jan-April 2019:
Positive news - reopening of Nikon service centers in UK
Nikon’s top priority is the safety of its customers, employees and the communities we serve. Having closely monitored the updated government advice, we have now re-opened our service centre. We are observing all guidance provided to us, ensuring that we are following the 2 metres social distancing guidelines at all times, making our workspace safe for our employees and your equipment, whilst in our care.
In April Japanese sales dropped by 75% compared to April 2019.
Japanese resources are all patriotic, so they report non real market shares Canon (20.4%), Sony (24.5%), and Olympus (25.8%), hoping to save Olympus that is in terminal condition.
Olympus sales fall is largest in biggest and richest world regions, only in Asia it is not so bad mostly due to big dicsounts and quite good dealers remaining (they cut almost all of good people in the west).
The Foundation for Economic Education (FEE) is a libertarian economic think-tank dedicated to the "economic, ethical and legal principles of a free society."
Wow, best organizations making "top" content. About reality that don't match their ideas.
Ludwig von Mises (1881–1973) taught in Vienna and New York and served as a close adviser to the Foundation for Economic Education.
And here we have our beloved Austrian guys, always glad to see them waiting to implement their fascist (err, to be politically correct they now use "libertarian" word) ideas. They had been thrown out after mainstream in 30es and now try to return, but always had money from special anti-communist financing programs.
Issue is that we have lot of PV topics about censorship preparations, issues with economics, issues with resources, issues with semiconductors business and so on (and general big coronavirus topic).
And it is seems too fit, as no other way US could issue huge multi trillion support packages to try to delay debt issues (and keep inflation broken stock market). No other way China could tell why life is no longer improving fast, and so on.
Film industry is important, but as ruling class fights for sole existance in that could become their last fight - it is not so important, as hundreds of millions of other workers. As they all represent opposite, opressed class.
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