Glogal ODM smartphone shipments are expected to reach 260 million units in 2020, down 41.6 million units or 13.5% from a year earlier, according to Digitimes Research.

Hard times coming for chipmakers.

Supply chain partners of AMD, Nvidia and Intel have been left confused recently by the chip vendors' product launch schedules, which have either been changed frequently or kept a secret in their latest rounds of competition.

Issue with schedules is more related to TSMC and overall economcs situation.

It is now clear that something is up with so called TSMC 5nm process and that TSMC had been unablle to make 7nm+ process that uses EUV to work reliably still.

Present data is that TSMC wants up to $25 billions USD from US goverment. This is size of special US fund for semiconductor productiona nd development. It is expected that TSMC and Intel will get up to 95% of this fund.

Without such taxpayer money semiconductor inductry can no longer develop, and it is only ont he approach to the hard wall.

On why China still is pretty far from good position in this war

At the beginning of the semiconductor manufacturing process, monocrystalline silicon wafers are turned into chips. This procedure requires oxidation, coating, photolithography, etching, ion implantation, physical vapor deposition, chemical vapor deposition, polishing, wafer inspection and cleaning. Back-end processes include packaging and testing, backside thinning, wafer cutting, patching, wire bonding, molding, cutting tendon/forming, and final testing.

Semiconductor manufacturing equipment leading vendors

Oxidation/ RTP /laser annealing Applied Materials, Hitachi, Japan, Tokyo Electronics, Thermco, UK, Naura Technology Group Co., Beijing E-Town Semiconductor Technology

Glue development equipment
Tokyo Electronics, Deans, Germany SUSS, Austria EVG, Shenyang Kingsemi

Lithography machines
ASML, Nikon Japan, Canon Japan, Tokyo Electronics, Applied Materials, Panlin Group, SEMES Korea, Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (Group) Co.

Plasma etching machines
Pan Lin Group, Villian Semiconductor, Tokyo Electronics, Applied Materials, Hitachi, Japan JuSung, South Korea TES, AdvancedMicro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China, North China Chuang

Ion implantation
Applied Materials, American Axcelies, German Ingun, American QA, American MicroXcat, Korean Leeno, Shanghai Kingstone Semiconductor, Beijing Zhongkexin Electronics Equipment, China Electronics Technology Group Corp.

Physical vapor deposition
Applied Materials, Japan Evatec, Japan Ulvac, America Vaportech, Britain Teer, Switzerland Platit, Germany Cemecon, Beijing NMC Co., Sky Technology Development Co., Chengdu Rankuum Machinery, The 48th Research Institute of CETC, Cross-Tech Equipment Co.

Chemical vapor deposition
Applied Materials, Panlin Group, American GT, Soitec, American ProtoFlex, French Semco, ASML, Tokyo Electronics, Nikon Japan, Canon Japan, North China Chuang, Shenyang Piotech Co.

CMP equipment
Applied Materials, American Rtec, Japanese Evatec, HWatsing Technology, The 45th Research Institute of CETC, ACM Research

Wafer inspection: electrical inspection equipment, quality inspection equipment
Teradyne, Advantech, Tokyo Electronics, Corey Semiconductor, Applied Materials, Hitachi, Japan, Hangzhou Changchun Technology, Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co., Shanghai Zhongyi Automatic System Co., RISC Scientific Instrument (Shanghai) Co., Shanghai Jingce Semiconductor

Cleaning equipment
Japan Deans, Tokyo Electronics, Panlin Group, South Korea SEMES, North China Chuang, Shengmei Semiconductor, Pnc Process Systems Co., Shenzhen S.C. New Energy Technology Corp.

TSMC capital expenditures will be reduced

Due to the impact of Huawei’s new ban, some customers’ orders of TSMC (2330) were revised down, which led to a conservative view of the annual revenue. Capital expenditure in 2020 will be 13% lower than the company's previous forecast and 9% less than the previous year.

After negotiations with semiconductor equipment vendors, it was found that some new equipment orders for TSMC have been extended from June to December. The latest plan shows that the 5-nanometer process is likely to be reduced by 10,000 to 15,000 pieces per month compared to the previous plan, and the 7-nanometer process may be reduced by 10,000 to 20,000 pieces. The combined capital expenditure in 2020 and 2021 will be reduced by 5 to 7 billion US dollars .

And it is big issue for TSMC, especially if later we'll see second wave.

New AMD rumors

Present rumoprs are that APU Ryzen 6000 aka Rembrandt will use 6nm TSMC process.

It'll be slightly improved existing 7nm process with more EUV steps and little marketing adjustments.

Similar to fake 12nm AMD used before.

TSMC 5nm process is still very questionable and aimed at low power mobile chips.

3nm is just distant dreams for now.

Issue with 5nma dn 3nm considering CPU and GPU chips is that you no longer have enough surface to keep thermals good, as well as fact that with frequency rise transistor leaks become enormous.

GLOBALFOUNDRIES® (GF®), the world's leading specialty foundry and the leading U.S. pure-play manufacturer of semiconductors, today announced plans to implement export control security measures at its most advanced manufacturing facility, Fab 8, in Malta, New York. GF will bring its Fab 8 facility into compliance with both the U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) standards and the Export Administration Regulations (EAR), making the company the most advanced ITAR foundry in the country. By taking this significant step, GF deepens its partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the U.S. defense industrial base, and further supports ongoing development of new assurance approaches in support of national security objectives.

These new control assurances, which will go into effect later this year, will make confidentiality and integrity protections available for defense-related applications, devices or components manufactured at GF’s Fab 8 facility. To date, GF has invested over $13 billion in Fab 8 and this is a significant step to serve the U.S. government and its technology needs for decades.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer commented, “I have always been a strong believer that the most secure way to manufacture semiconductor chips is to do so here in the U.S. I have also been a champion of GLOBALFOUNDRIES and applaud their efforts to provide ITAR and EAR compliant manufacturing to the U.S. Government. In partnership with GF, New York State leads the nation in secure semiconductor manufacturing.”

Company can have US military as their main clients within 2 years.

TSMC story can also explain why all of the sudden GF dropped their own 7nm process and AMD had been ordered to use TSMC.

China goal now is to use any means, dirty tricks and open military force to destroy US - TSMC deal and also find weak spots in other US mased manufacturers logistics.

Tragedy of TSMC

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world biggest contract chipmaker, has halted new orders from Huawei Technologies in response to tighter U.S. export controls aimed at further limiting the Chinese company's access to crucial chip supplies.

Huawei is TSMC's second-largest client only after Apple, accounting for 15-20% of its annual revenue. Huawei also accounted for up to 20% of SMIC's revenue, according to a Bernstein Research estimate.

According to the document posted online by the U.S. Commerce Department Bureau of Industry and Security, chip shipments bound for Huawei that went into production before May 15 and will ship before midnight Sept. 14 are not subject to the new rule. A license will be required for all other shipments.

Impact of this decision will be unprecidented.

It can be also only measure that could save Intel and buy 1-2 more years by keeping TSMC from moving forward.

TSMC and surprise strange news on US plant

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co plans to build an advanced chip factory in Arizona. The plant would make 5-nanometer transistor chips for TSMC.

TSMC’s board made the decision to build the plant earlier this week at a meeting in Taiwan and may officially announced the plans as early as Friday.

The plans call for the factory to begin producing the chips by the end of 2023.

This fully contradicts all other reports.

But it can be special plot made by Apple and TSMC to explain low volume of 5nm production later this year and next year, as well as very big delays with further processes.

Something is happening with TSMC, as it lost around 30% of income in last months. Most probably we see now attempt of US to transfer newly printed money directly to most valuable asset they have.

Hygon Dhyana (threadripper 1st gen sold to CHinese) will move to 7nm soon. Samsung or TSMC or both will make them.

Big danger here is that it won't AMD team who will do redesign for completely new process, but new team of more than 500 Chinese engineers.

AMD seems to make huge error providing all documentation and signing on terms where they can't stop it now.

CPU can jump to 32 cores even. But still will be using same mount.

Compatibility to older x399 chipset can be also in Chinese plans as they can sell them internationally in this case.

Wall Street Journal sources say the White House is talking to Intel and TSMC about setting up US chip factories. While Intel already has a US presence, its discussions revolve creating a foundry that other companies could use for their products.

In the time of dangerous Chinese manufacturers rise (now only equipment control limit this rise) Wall Street Journal sources say the White House is talking to Intel and TSMC about setting up US chip factories. While Intel already has a US presence, its discussions revolve creating a foundry that other companies could use for their products.

This can actually put big stick in both TSMC and Intel front wheels, as they now will be forced to move best factories and make new ones in mostly in US, this means 3-4 years delay that can become fatal.

Again on Moore law

Chiplets effectively bypass Moore's Law by replacing a single silicon die with multiple smaller dice that work together in a unified packaged solution. This approach provides much more silicon to add transistors compared to a monolithic microchip. As a result, chiplets are expected to allow a return to the two-year doubling cycle that has underpinned the economics of the semiconductor business since 1965.

"When semiconductor pioneer Gordon Moore first published his theory about semiconductor advancement, he provided a key forecasting benchmark that set a development cycle for the entire tech industry," said Tom Hackenberg, principal analyst, embedded processors, Omdia. "From software developers, to system designers, to tech investors, everyone for decades counted on the swift two-year schedule defined by Moore's Law. With the arrival of chiplets, the semiconductor business and those that depend upon it now have the opportunity to return to the customary rate of progress that has driven so much economic value for the overall tech industry."

Chiplets are experiencing adoption in more advanced and highly integrated semiconductor devices, i.e., microprocessors (MPU), system-on-chip (SoC) devices, graphics processing units (GPU) and programmable logic devices (PLD). The MPU segment represents the largest single market for chiplets among different microchip product types. The global market with chiplet-enabled MPUs is expected to expand to US$2.4 billion in 2024, up from US$452 million in 2018, according to Omdia.

"To remain competitive, MPU makers must always stick to the cutting edge of semiconductor manufacturing technologies," Hackenberg said. "These companies have the most to lose from the slowdown in Moore's Law. Because of this, these companies are among the earliest adopters of chiplets and are likely to be the primary contributors to chiplet standardization efforts."

MPU suppliers such as Intel and AMD are the early innovators building proprietary advanced packaging chiplets. Intel is also a member of the Open Compute Project, Open Domain-Specific Architecture (OCP ODSA) foundation, which is promoting the development of standards and technologies that are helping to enable advanced packaging strategies.

With the early adoption in MPUs, the computing segment is expected to be the dominant application market for chiplets through 2024, Omdia noted. Computing will account for 96% of revenue in 2020 and 92% by 2024.

Over the longer term, Omdia expects chiplet revenue to continue to expand and reach US$57 billion in revenue by 2035. Much of this growth will be driven by chiplets that serve as heterogenous processors, i.e., chips that combine different processing elements, such as applications processors that integrate graphics, security engines, artificial intelligence (AI) acceleration, low-power internet of things (IoT) controllers and more.

"Chiplets may not single-handedly save Moore's Law, but they do represent an innovative, emerging approach that help advance new packaging technologies, new design strategies and new materials," Hackenberg said. "This exciting new approach also may enable a more competitive landscape with diverse contributors. Chiplets will bolster the cadence Moore conveyed in his original 1965 article. The import of that original statement was not really about how microprocessors grow in performance. Rather, it was about establishing an industry guideline for a cadence that system designers, software developers and investors could count on to drive the innovation engine. This is the aspect of Moore's Law that will live on."

Too much hope for chiplets. They hope that issues with new processes could be hidden, no they won't.