Small rumors from Japan

Panasonic and Nikon will change the way their FF bodies and expensive lenses are assembled.
Due to very low amount of FF bodies sold both companies will be used less specialized personnel where each is performing much more operations.
Space used on factories for both companies is expected to fall as much as 3-4 times towards February 2021.

Future of photos cameras press:

One thing he does not tell much is state of his NY business (as photo businesses jobs in NY now almost do not exist), as it can be sole reason of sales and absolutely not mirrorless related at all.

2021 industry prediction

Made after few talks.

Sony, Canon and Nikon

• 2 entry level cameras introduction per company per year, one or both will be just body rehash ell else will be same
• Top of the line camera for some of them, can even feature new LSI
• Biggest hit will be in the middle. It'll be only one camera usually per year, sometimes even none, prices will go up significantly
• Only one company expect new LSI within next 12 months, life of many main chips will be up to next 4 years

Pentax

• Company is done and behaving like Olympus did, rehashing old guts in new bodies
• Unable to make any new LSI (main chip)
• Can't secure sensors for good quote from Sony, their cost is now always much worse compared to others
• Lenses will be mostly rebranded things, some even made by Chinese manufacturers (and around 2x-3x price premium)
• Last third party lens manufacturers will left the mount

Olympus

• You'll see how the utilization press is "optimizing" the remains
• Company now has big stock of unsold lenses (some as old as 4-5 years)
• Also rumors are that lot of bodies now pile up in storage units in US and EU (despite being marked as sold long ago)
• Sold part will cease any operations (except makign and designign lenses for others) in mid 2021

Panasonic

• Can be biggest hit company in late 2020 and 2021
• In case of big second wave imaging unit will be almost destroyed
• L mount lineup and lenses can be pulled silently, no announcement will be made, people talk about early 2021
• Panasonic still has 2 interesting m43 bodies almost ready, but it will be hard to make it all final and sell good
• Even in worst scenario m43 lenses manufacturing won't stop until late 2021
• Sales can drop as much as 10 times in fall of 2021 compared to fall of 2019

Big online US retailer estimation for cameras and acessories sales during Augist-October period

Positive scenery (payments to individuals stay on current levels, evictions not enforced, medium covid cases)

• cameras - 20-35% from year before
• lenses - 10-25% from year before
• acessories - 35-40% from year before

Realistic scenery (payments to individuals reduced by around half, some evictions allowed, more covid cases)

• cameras - 10-25% from year before
• lenses - 10-15% from year before
• acessories - 15-20% from year before

Bad scenery (payments to individuals slmost stopped, massive evictions, big number of covid cases)

• cameras - 5-10% from year before
• lenses - 5-7% from year before
• acessories - 5-10% from year before

Britain has announced a £500m ($647m) fund to help television and film companies restart productions, after companies complained they were unable to get insurance because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Shoots shut down abruptly in March as Covid-19 spread and the government imposed a lockdown. As filmmakers try to get back to work, they are finding some insurers have stopped providing the Covid-19 coverage they need to secure financing.

The government said the insurance fund will be available to all productions made by companies where at least half the production budget is spent in the UK, and is estimated to cover more than 70% of the film and TV production market.

Printing money is easy, it is hard to live with condequences.

With the market shrinking at such speed, companies are at great risk of falling into a fixed-costs crisis.

Some analysts believe the entire industry will collapse unless companies undertake major reforms, like splitting design and development from manufacturing, and consolidating production.

The impact of Olympus’ decision to quit the camera business and discard 84 years’ worth of experience, may spread.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Electronics/Olympus-exit-foreshadows-a-Japan-camera-sector-shake-up

@Vitaliy....panasonic and nikon ? I fear if nikon dies, it'll take the whole camera market with them. It's too symbolic. Much more so than even olympus.

Year to Date Sales compared to Jan-April 2019:

• DSLR Units : 754K, -47% YTD
• DSLR Shipped Value: ¥32.3 billion -45%
• Mirrorless Units: 720K , -36%
• Mirrorless Shipped Value: ¥50.4 billion -40%
• Compact Units: 1.16m -47%
• Compact Shipped Value: ¥22.9 billion -44%
• Lenses for smaller than 35mm Units: 1.68 million, -41%
• Lenses for smaller than 35mm Shipped Value: ¥23.9 billion, -40%
• Lenses for 35mm and larger Units: 978K, -40%
• Lenses for 35mm and larger Shipped Value: ¥48 billion, -39%

In April Japanese sales dropped by 75% compared to April 2019.

Japanese resources are all patriotic, so they report non real market shares Canon (20.4%), Sony (24.5%), and Olympus (25.8%), hoping to save Olympus that is in terminal condition.

Olympus sales fall is largest in biggest and richest world regions, only in Asia it is not so bad mostly due to big dicsounts and quite good dealers remaining (they cut almost all of good people in the west).

https://sonyreconsidered.com/sony-q4-fy19-reveals-all-time-low-alpha-camera-sales-of-400k-12976c4b4705