http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussions/tagged/economics/p9/feed.rss Wed, 01 May 24 01:55:32 +0000 Tagged with economics - Personal View Talks en-CA http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1183/us-foreigners-dump-74-billion-in-treasurys-in-6-consecutive-weeks Fri, 14 Oct 2011 11:06:09 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 1183@/talks/discussions

Via: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/foreigners-dump-74-billion-treasurys-6-consecutive-weeks-biggest-sequential-outflow-history

As I said, treasures become N1 real target for US real goverment.]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1178/cross Thu, 13 Oct 2011 18:56:10 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 1178@/talks/discussions


Via: http://www.gallup.com/poll/150068/Chinese-Struggling-Less-Americans-Afford-Basics.aspx
]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1158/rise-by-61 Wed, 12 Oct 2011 10:16:42 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 1158@/talks/discussions Opium production in Afghanistan rose by 61% this year compared with 2010, according to a UN report.

The increase has been attributed to rising opium prices that have driven farmers to expand cultivation of the illicit opium poppy by 7% in 2011.

Last year opium production halved largely due to a plant infection which drastically reduced yields.

Afghanistan produces 90% of the world's opium - 5,800 tonnes this year - the main ingredient of heroin.

Analysts say that revenue from the drug has helped fund the Taliban insurgency.

Farmers who responded to the survey described economic hardship and lucrative prices as the main reasons for the increase.

Nearly 80% of the opium grown in Afghanistan is being produced in provinces in the south, including Helmand and Kandahar, which are among the most volatile in the country.

The report says that there are now 17 provinces in Afghanistan affected by poppy cultivation, up from 14 one year ago.

Via: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15254788

One of support machanisms for US economy is working good.
Btw, about plant infection. No it is not US behind it, quite the opposite :-) US helped to fight with this infection.]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1160/greece-occupation Wed, 12 Oct 2011 12:52:33 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 1160@/talks/discussions Greek finance ministry workers blocked access to the ministry’s main building in central Athens as part of protests against government plans to cut jobs and wages.

Members of the Federation of Finance Ministry Unions hung a banner reading ‘Occupation’ from the roof of the eight-story building and hoisted black flags around the roof. The federation plans a nine-day strike beginning Oct. 17, according to an e- mailed statement today.

Via: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-12/greek-finance-ministry-workers-block-access-to-athens-building.html
]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/894/us-schizophrenia Fri, 09 Sep 2011 00:32:58 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 894@/talks/discussions

Pass this jobs bill, and starting tomorrow, small businesses will get a tax cut if they hire new workers or raise workers’ wages. Pass this jobs bill, and all small business owners will also see their payroll taxes cut in half next year. If you have 50 employees making an average salary, that’s an $80,000 tax cut. And all businesses will be able to continue writing off the investments they make in 2012.

It’s not just Democrats who have supported this kind of proposal. Fifty House Republicans have proposed the same payroll tax cut that’s in this plan. You should pass it right away.

Pass this jobs bill, and we can put people to work rebuilding America. Everyone here knows that we have badly decaying roads and bridges all over this country. Our highways are clogged with traffic. Our skies are the most congested in the world.

This is inexcusable. Building a world-class transportation system is part of what made us an economic superpower. And now we’re going to sit back and watch China build newer airports and faster railroads? At a time when millions of unemployed construction workers could build them right here in America?

Via: http://nationaljournal.com/whitehouse/text-obama-s-jobs-speech-there-are-steps-we-can-take-right-now--20110908

It is very hard to comment speech made by delusional schizophrenic.
So, I won't be doing this, it speaks for itself.

Better see this:

]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1147/mister-trichet Tue, 11 Oct 2011 09:00:57 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 1147@/talks/discussions
"The crisis is systemic and must be tackled decisively," Trichet told a European Parliament committee in his final appearance before retiring at the end of the month.

"The high interconnectedness in the EU financial system has led to a rapidly rising risk of significant contagion. It threatens financial stability in the EU as a whole and adversely impacts the real economy in Europe and beyond."


Via: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/11/eurozone-idUSL5E7LB1JM20111011

Big surprise :-)]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1131/few-charts Sat, 08 Oct 2011 06:29:16 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 1131@/talks/discussions

---

]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1104/us-debt-limit Wed, 05 Oct 2011 06:22:14 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 1104@/talks/discussions



As I said, debt and treasures become main target for all econimical trends in US.
It even requires necessary losses, like stock market value.
But you can correct them if it will become too bad (look at mr. Bernanke yesterday).]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1072/kodak-plummets-54-on-bankruptcy-rumors Fri, 30 Sep 2011 16:21:52 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 1072@/talks/discussions
The Wall Street Journal said Friday that Kodak had hired law firm Jones Day for restructuring. Bloomberg said the company hasn't officially hired a firm yet, but that bankruptcy is among the options being considered.

A representative for Jones Day declined to comment, and Kodak did not immediately respond to requests.

The rumors come just days after Kodak was forced to draw from its credit line, had its credit rating downgraded by two major agencies, and received harsh words from a stockholder.

Kodak shares plunged 54% Friday on the news to a mere 78 cents. The stock is down a whopping 86% year-to-date.

Via: http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/30/technology/kodak_bankruptcy_rumors/]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/958/us-dollar-liquidity Thu, 15 Sep 2011 23:07:23 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 958@/talks/discussions
As before, these operations will be at fixed interest rates with counterparties able to borrow any amount against eligible collateral. The first tender will be held on Wednesday 12 October. Further details can be found in the Market Notice at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/marketnotice110915.pdf.

Via: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2011/084.htm]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1004/us-operation-twist-made-public Wed, 21 Sep 2011 23:38:56 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 1004@/talks/discussions http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-21/treasury-yield-falls-to-record-on-fed-bond-purchase-twist-.html


Idea is old and had been used for long already.
It is even called "stimulus" measure.
But at current 10y and 30y rates it just looks extremely strage.
Real goals of such measure are as follows:
1) Problem to sell long bonds to central banks of other countries. So, FED needs to buy them.
2) Short rates are almost zero, so no big harm will do done here in short term.
3) As I wrote previously, real target now are bond rates.
FED moved to play wth them leaving high valatility on the markets.
With time it'll make exactly the opposite, stability will be gradually decreasing.]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1007/volatility-is-back Thu, 22 Sep 2011 10:24:09 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 1007@/talks/discussions

Same thing is happening on commodities market, including Gold and Silver.]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/867/us-usps-problems Wed, 07 Sep 2011 00:41:27 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 867@/talks/discussions
“Our situation is extremely serious,” the postmaster general, Patrick R. Donahoe, said in an interview. “If Congress doesn’t act, we will default.”

In recent weeks, Mr. Donahoe has been pushing a series of painful cost-cutting measures to erase the agency’s deficit, which will reach $9.2 billion this fiscal year. They include eliminating Saturday mail delivery, closing up to 3,700 postal locations and laying off 120,000 workers — nearly one-fifth of the agency’s work force — despite a no-layoffs clause in the unions’ contracts.




Read the rest at: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/05/business/in-internet-age-postal-service-struggles-to-stay-solvent-and-relevant.html?_r=2]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/969/libya-ntc-and-nato-forces-driven-back-from-bani-walid Fri, 16 Sep 2011 22:10:16 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 969@/talks/discussions
Anti-Gaddafi forces have been forced to pull back from Bani Walid after meeting fierce resistance from those loyal to the ousted Libyan leader.

Fighters came under heavy shelling and gunfire after entering the town, 90 miles (140 kilometres) south-east of the capital Tripoli.

Further to the east, forces are continuing an assault on Sirte, another remaining Gaddafi stronghold (with same result).

Via: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14955463]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/965/us-bond-holders-in-july Fri, 16 Sep 2011 13:20:29 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 965@/talks/discussions


Russia keeps selling this garbage.]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/962/calculate-first-write-second Fri, 16 Sep 2011 07:59:03 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 962@/talks/discussions
bythom.com

Let's use shadowstats.com and calculate it carefully.
Assume what $399 price had been told in 1.01.2008 (D40x had been presented much earlear in 2007, so time frame is correct).
According to shadow stats calculator we have $560 equivalent in Aug 2011.

Looking at the yen rate chart below we could also conclude that something is definitely wrong with Thom logic.
If we fix price in YEN, price in USD will be about $570 now.

]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/952/eu-europe-in-danger Thu, 15 Sep 2011 14:57:24 +0000 Mihuel 952@/talks/discussions Europe is in danger," Rostowski told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, even warning that "war" could return to the continent in the future if the bloc crumbled.

"If the eurozone breaks up, the European Union will not be able to survive, with all the consequences that one can imagine."

Rostowski warned that the "current crisis, if it continues in such an unpredictable way, will have major repercussions," with unemployment possibly doubling in some countries if it drags on for one or two more years.

He said that the consequences of stepping out of eurozone would be grave for both poor and indebted country and the well-off one.

Quoting Swiss UBS bank he said that for poor member states it would mean GDP decreasing by 40-50 percent in the first year of secession and 10-20 percent in the following years. Rich countries would suffer 20-25 percent GDP slump in the first year and another10 percent in the coming years.

”We cannot allow that to happen,” Rostowski warned.

European Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso agreed with the Polish minister.

"We are confronted with the most serious challenge of a generation. This is a fight for the jobs and prosperity of families in all our member states," Barroso told the European MPs.

"This is a fight for the economic and political future of Europe. This is a fight for what Europe represents in the world. This is a fight for European integration itself," he said.

Barroso said the solution was to have "more Europe, not less Europe," but said there were increasing signs that France and Germany were "re-nationalising" eurozone decision-making.

Barroso said some of the options to be presented could be implemented within the terms of the Lisbon Treaty, but others would require amendments, which would prolong any plans to introduce eurobonds.

"But we must be honest: this will not bring an immediate solution for all the problems we face and it will come as an element of a comprehensive approach to further economic and political integration," Barroso said.

AFP/PAP]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/950/uk-geological-survey Thu, 15 Sep 2011 09:25:27 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 950@/talks/discussions ]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/929/greece-chronicle-of-diving-plane Mon, 12 Sep 2011 11:03:34 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 929@/talks/discussions

]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/928/greece-cash-problems Mon, 12 Sep 2011 07:08:44 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 928@/talks/discussions Debt-laden Greece has cash to operate until next month, the country's deputy finance minister said on Monday, highlighting the country's need to qualify for the next tranche out of its ongoing EU/IMF bailout.

Filippos Sachinidis's statements confirm previous comments by Greek officials, made on condition of anonymity, that the country had cash for only a few more weeks.

"We have definitely maneuvering space within October," Sachinidis said in an interview on television channel Mega, responding to questions how much longer the government will be able to pay wages and pensions.

"We are trying to make sure the state can continue to operate without problems," he added.

Greece's international lenders threatened last week to withhold the sixth bailout payment of about 8 billion euros ($11 million) because of the country's repeated fiscal slippages.

The Greek government announced on Sunday a new property tax to make sure it will meet its budget targets and qualify for the tranche. The EU's Commissioner for Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn, welcomed the move, saying it went "a long way" toward meeting the country's targets.


Via: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/12/us-greece-cash-idUSTRE78B1BR20110912]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/922/us-10-years-in-numbers Sun, 11 Sep 2011 15:53:21 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 922@/talks/discussions

Via: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/september-11-10-years-late]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/902/choosing-your-next-camera-logic-and-emotions Sat, 10 Sep 2011 03:05:29 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 902@/talks/discussions decisions and satisfactory choices.
Whether purchasing a new car, a desktop computer, or a pair of shoes, people generally
believe that serious conscious deliberation increases the probability that they will make the
right choice. This idea applies especially to choices between products that are complex,
multifaceted, and expensive. Whereas most people are willing to buy a new set of towels
without much thought, they are unlikely to buy a new car or outfit a new kitchen without
deliberation.

---

A second pervasive idea is that the quality of a choice benefits from sleeping on it.
Rather than (or in addition to) thinking consciously, people usually feel that unconscious
thought is useful for making sound decisions.





Ap Dijksterhuis, «On Making the Right Choice: The Deliberation-Without-Attention Effect»
Read the rest at: http://www.unconsciouslab.com/publications/Dijksterhuis%20Bos%20Nordgren%20Van%20Baaren%20-%20The%20deliberation%20without%20attention%20effect.pdf

]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/849/us-unemployment Sun, 04 Sep 2011 05:31:36 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 849@/talks/discussions 16.7% blacks (afro-american is politcorrect term) are officially unemployed, setting new record for last 30 years.
Young black unempoyment is 46.5%.

More details at:
http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/876/greece-1y-bonds-yield-near-100 Wed, 07 Sep 2011 11:54:25 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 876@/talks/discussions

Via: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/meanwhile-everything-fixed-europe

P.S. My previous post had been few days ago at the moment of crossing 60% :-)]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/862/rates-and-idiots Tue, 06 Sep 2011 07:36:09 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 862@/talks/discussions Nouriel Roubini tweets: "I was just interviewed on CNBC:The ECB has to reverse this week its biggest mistake ever, the rate hike that sharply worsened the EZ crisis."

What's amazing about the ECB rate hikes earlier this year is that EVERYONE saw the possibility that it was going to turn into a disaster, in part because it so nicely echoed the blunder from 2008, when Jean-Claude Trichet -- looking at surging oil prices and a weakening banking system -- decided to hike rates in order to fight inflation.



Here's a chart we ran earlier this year, showing what the scene looked like in 2008, as Trichet hiked rates right at the top of the oil peak, only to see the whole thing collapse soon thereafter.

My personal opinion about about this rate related games and rants is as follows.
Imagine that you sit in a small black car and you are instructed to turn wheels to the right
to prevent accident with car in front of you.
You'll turn wheel accordingly, right? Wrong!
Problem is that you are standing still, and it is huge white truck going 120Mph who must turn.
So, turning wheel is fuckingly bad idea.
You better leave the car to have at least hope to survive and see letters on the side of the track - "Good luck from real economy!".

Or you can sit and continue to properly adjust rates for some time, short time:
]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/861/eu-bank-collapse Tue, 06 Sep 2011 07:18:13 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 861@/talks/discussions
At a conference in Frankfurt he said, "It is an open secret that numerous European banks would not survive having to revalue sovereign debt held on the banking book at market levels."

We have translated the speech based on Handelsbatt's, the organizer of the event where Ackermann spoke, account of it.

"In recent weeks, the distrust of the financial markets has spread to the banks because they are now suffering from the debt crisis in Europe and have a lot of exposure to, for example, Greek bonds."

"Since the financial crisis, some European banks have lost a third or more of their market capitalization," he said, according to Google Translate.

"Most institutions have a rating of "below the book value or at best."

There are three major stress factors crushing Euro banks right now, he says: the debt crisis, structural factors and financial regulation. With them together, it will be hard for the European banks to increase their revenues.

The implication is that not just Eurozone countries are buckling under the pressure of Greece's, France's, and Italy's debts, but banks are too. It sounds like a desperate call for a bailout. Now.

However he says, "State funds could use means to put stability back into many companies and countries, but that does not remain the only solution."

Still, the situation he describes looks dire. He says, "Many countries and households would have to reduce their debt. The mortgage business and consumer loans were [the few things] driving growth. In addition, there's the problem of shrinking populations in several European countries, which negatively affects the growth of credit markets."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/josef-ackermann-euro-banks-speech-frankfurt-2011-9]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/860/ubs-euro-break-up Tue, 06 Sep 2011 07:15:17 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 860@/talks/discussions

Read the rest at http://www.scribd.com/doc/64020390/xrm45126]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/848/israel-400000-rally-for-social-justice- Sun, 04 Sep 2011 01:36:26 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 848@/talks/discussions
The demonstrations were held under the banner “They [the government] only understand numbers.”

Saturday’s events were billed by organizers as a turning point, an all-out push for a critical mass of protesters to force the government to present solutions to the issues addressed by the movement.

Read the rest at http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=236568]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/792/sweden-saab Sun, 28 Aug 2011 00:45:23 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 792@/talks/discussions
Saab, which is scheduled to pay factory workers tomorrow and administrative employees Aug. 26, said yesterday that it may be forced to postpone wage payments as “committed” funds from investors may not arrive in time. Saab paid salaries about a week late in June and July.

Any delay in the August payments will prompt the unions immediately to start a process aimed at ensuring state coverage of wages in the event of the carmaker’s failure, officials from the IF Metall and Unionen labor groups said. The unions, after gaining employees’ backing, would first file payment requests with Saab. If salaries remain unpaid in seven days, the unions may then ask a district court to declare Saab bankrupt.

“We must start the process, as there’s no alternative to our moving to protect our members’ wages,” Veli-Pekka Saikkala, head of salary negotiations at IF Metall’s headquarters in Stockholm, said today by telephone. “Later, if we don’t see a solution, we’ll likely be forced to act.”

The automaker, which General Motors Co. (GM) sold last year, halted production in late March amid a cash crunch, and the factory at Saab’s Trollhaettan, Sweden, headquarters has been quiet since early June. Saab is trying to raise more funds and has said it aims to restart manufacturing in a few weeks. Sweden’s Debt Enforcement Agency started a collection process on Aug. 16 after Saab missed a deadline to pay suppliers.

Via: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-24/saab-auto-unions-may-push-carmaker-s-bankruptcy-in-prolonged-delay-of-pay.html]]> http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/845/us-homeless-producers-in-la Sat, 03 Sep 2011 11:23:21 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 845@/talks/discussions
The man and his family are doing everything they can to maintain a sense of pride, and they are trying desperately to hold onto their former lives. Their 8-year-old son spends four hours on a public bus everyday so he can keep attending school in his former neighborhood.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2090997,00.html#ixzz1Wu4EsYtW]]>